Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.375491 2.525951 2.685601 2.868394 3.072878 3.295738 3.558580
2025-06-01 2.138724 2.341041 2.566651 2.839542 3.164393 3.543652 4.027568
2025-06-08 2.002239 2.234863 2.503263 2.840839 3.261625 3.779811 4.485000
2025-06-15 1.914859 2.171239 2.475400 2.870702 3.383498 4.046045 5.004182
2025-06-22 1.809524 2.075133 2.396674 2.824849 3.397414 4.165605 5.333153
2025-06-29 1.718013 1.988476 2.321387 2.773825 3.394745 4.255825 5.625023
2025-07-06 1.632682 1.903811 2.242072 2.709535 3.365144 4.300386 5.847903
2025-07-13 1.598508 1.881349 2.240254 2.746944 3.477870 4.560471 6.452692
2025-07-20 1.571835 1.866376 2.246252 2.793809 3.606114 4.856301 7.172558
2025-07-27 1.548557 1.854080 2.254230 2.842654 3.739882 5.175222 8.002695
2025-08-03 1.504111 1.811317 2.218034 2.824651 3.768129 5.321205 8.528179
2025-08-10 1.462515 1.770468 2.182188 2.804310 3.789900 5.456893 9.061911
2025-08-17 1.420114 1.727585 2.142466 2.777155 3.800631 5.578313 9.606948
2025-08-24 1.380526 1.687083 2.104297 2.750012 3.808978 5.696299 10.178872
2025-08-31 1.352423 1.661241 2.085638 2.751245 3.864357 5.909442 11.054165
2025-09-07 1.334220 1.648318 2.084719 2.779551 3.968000 6.231311 12.344145
2025-09-14 1.296605 1.606773 2.040250 2.736084 3.941025 6.282246 12.872202
2025-09-21 1.259730 1.565166 1.994176 2.687686 3.901505 6.301873 13.314940
2025-09-28 1.221277 1.520276 1.941781 2.626660 3.834838 6.255545 13.531646
2025-10-05 1.211002 1.515249 1.948419 2.662175 3.948917 6.623597 15.357830
2025-10-12 1.203535 1.513880 1.960273 2.706645 4.083502 7.062427 17.772294
2025-10-19 1.196763 1.513193 1.972953 2.752965 4.225840 7.548452 20.854780
2025-10-26 1.174773 1.489559 1.949439 2.735897 4.240248 7.715128 22.565830